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Title: Micron's $100 Billion Gamble: Is the AI Boom Enough to Justify the Hype?

Micron (MU) is riding high, no doubt. A 187% year-to-date gain is nothing to sneeze at. But a recent 13% pullback after hitting record highs raises a critical question: is the market getting ahead of itself, or is this a buying opportunity? The answer, as always, lies in the data – and a healthy dose of skepticism.

The AI Mirage and the Reality of DRAM

The narrative is compelling: AI data centers are insatiable consumers of advanced memory, and Micron is perfectly positioned to capitalize. Indeed, in Q4 2025, advanced memory for AI accounted for 40% of Micron's revenue, a significant jump from 19% the previous year. Full-year revenue climbed by 49%. But let's dig a little deeper. While 40% sounds impressive, it also means 60% of their revenue isn't AI-related. Are we betting the entire farm on a single application?

Micron's management is doing their part, with executives scheduled to speak at RBC Capital Markets’ 2025 Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference to further push the narrative. And Morgan Stanley is on board, raising its price target to $325 and naming MU a "Top Pick." Price targets are opinions, of course, but they move markets.

What worries me more is the long-term capital allocation. The Clay, New York DRAM campus is slated to be a $100 billion investment. The final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) just dropped, and it quietly pushes the start of construction back 2-3 years. First fab now online around 2030, full build-out by 2041, and full production by 2045. That's twenty years from now. I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular delay, buried deep in the EIS, is unusual. Is this just regulatory friction, or is something else going on behind the scenes?

Shifting Sands: CHIPS Act Reallocation

Then there's the CHIPS Act funding shuffle. Micron reallocated $1.2 billion from New York to Idaho, reducing Clay’s share from $4.6 billion to $3.4 billion. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing – accelerating a second fab in Idaho could be a smart move. But it does suggest a certain…flexibility…in Micron’s long-term planning. Are they hedging their bets? (A prudent move, if you ask me.)

mu stock price: what we know – What Reddit is Saying

Primecap Management Co. CA reduced its Micron stake by 15.6% in Q2, though they still hold a massive $3.88 billion worth of shares. Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd cut its position by 11.8%. Institutional ownership remains high at 81%, but these shifts, however small, are worth noting. And then we have the insider sales. CAO Scott R. Allen, EVP Scott J. Deboer, and CFO Mark J. Murphy sold a combined value above $85 million over the last quarter. It's their money, of course, but you have to wonder if they know something the rest of us don't.

Micron reported non-GAAP EPS of $3.03 in Q4 2025, beating consensus estimates around $2.86. That's good. But it's backwards-looking. The market is a forward-looking beast, and the future is far less certain.

FXLeaders attributed the recent pullback to a classic “AI hangover,” suggesting the AI infrastructure trade may have gotten ahead of itself. This seems plausible. The question is whether the market is simply correcting, or if it's sniffing out a more fundamental problem. Investors are now laser-focused on upcoming milestones – construction progress, CHIPS Act disbursements, and, most importantly, Micron’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results in mid-December.

Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

Micron's growth is undeniable. A $1,000 investment 10 years ago would be worth roughly $14,600 today—a gain of about 1,364%. But that's the past. The next decade will be defined by the execution of this $100 billion gamble. Will the AI boom continue to fuel demand for advanced memory? Can Micron navigate the complexities of building a massive manufacturing campus in upstate New York? And perhaps most importantly, will the CHIPS Act funding actually materialize as promised?

The potential rewards are enormous. The Clay campus is projected to create 9,000 permanent Micron jobs and 40,000 additional jobs across New York State. But the risks are equally significant. Delays, cost overruns, and a slowdown in AI demand could leave Micron with a very expensive white elephant.